We are witness these days to two major forces at work in the world: water and youth. Both can be tranquil, calm, and a source of peace, providing vital services to society; both can be a major force of destruction, irreversibly transforming physical and social structures.
The Japanese tsunami caused the earth to shift on its axis, creating permanent and shocking geological transformations; I believe these youth tsunamis are causing a giant shift on political axes, and will cause permanent political and social restructuring that is not just limited to the Middle East and North Africa.
While I can’t claim to be an expert on these movements, I want to offer my perspective, as a social entrepreneur working with diverse youth groups across Kenya.
Kenya has some things disturbingly similar to our northern neighbors Tunisia, Libya and Egypt:
- A huge youth population,a massive economic imbalance, coupled with
- A culture of impunity, and
- A culture of complicity in corruption, as well as
- Politicians who are reticent to yield power (“entrenched regimes” is my new favorite term)
In the image below, all the countries experiencing revolution in North Africa and the Middle East are in light or dark orange; their average youth age 20-30. All the yellow ones, including Kenya? Median age 14-20. Sub-Saharan Africa take note: a youth tsunami is coming, and we must work now to make it a force for good.
Youth Demographics
Kenyan youth are for the most part as literate as their revolutionary counterparts (92% literacy according to UNESCO as compared to 71% for Sub-Saharan Africa, and versus eg. Libya 100%, Tunisia 97%, Egypt 85%) but experience greater unemployment. However, the average for Sub-Saharan Africa is 71%.
Plus, Kenyan youth have more experience in violent protest. Our youth were the ones who raped and maimed and evicted and murdered in 2008, funded by leading politicians, many of whom have been implicated in past large corruption scandals, none of whom has ever been convicted for any wrongdoings, and five of whom are being taken to court by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the Hague.
Above: Youth Literacy Rate. Below: Rates of Unemployment
In my next blog I’ll break out the other three contributing factors I see to creating a destructive youth tsunami, and what I see happening in Kenya.
